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Starting point for the research project are the changes in the structure of
international order and in security politics within the international system
that have been observable since the end of the Cold War. These changes include a
shift of the ideas of international order (prevention, intervention) as well as
a qualitative and quantitative change in the forms of violence. The central
elements of this overarching change of violence are its privatisation and
denationalisation, their increasingly trans-national and regional character, as
well as the reinforcement of internal armed conflicts due to the 'economies of
violence' leading to an increasingly globalised war economy. If there are new
forms of violence emerging, the question for chances and limitations of any
external conflict transformation (prevention and intervention) has to be posed
anew. The goal of the project must consequently be, to clarify which forms of
violence shape the current international system as far as security politics and
international order are concerned, and what are the chances and limitations of
international influence by the means of intervention and prevention in weak or
failed states. Theoretically as well as empirically the project adheres to a set
of desiderata in current research. Whereas the systematic description of
structural and accidental developments of forms of violence in weak and failed
states is seen as a contribution to create a conflict-theoretical basis of so
called new wars in a globalised era, the connection of forms of conflict with
external approaches to influence them should be regarded as contributing to an
accentuation of the dimensions of prevention. Although the concept of prevention
is widely talked about today, there is a notable lack of theoretical and
conceptual linkage with its actual frame of reference - violent conflicts;
especially with their change and the problem of differing regional risks for
international politics. In the ongoing discussion the fact that prevention
depends on the willingness and ability to intervene (intervention being the
correlate of prevention) is not sufficiently considered. Secondly it is often
negated that, if the concept of prevention and intervention is consequently
thought, it implies the use of force as ultima ratio. Thirdly the necessity of
prevention being actor-centred is not given sufficient space in the ongoing
discussion, as well as the insight that success or failure of certain preventive
measures directly depend on the particular kind of the respective violent
conflict. Fourthly from a security-political view, the regional context in which
violent conflicts occur is to be taken into consideration. Finally the problem
is of interest, in how far prevention and intervention contribute to a change in
the structure of international order, that is in how far do they lead to a
standardisation and limitation of violence on the one hand and to intervention
on the other. The key interest of any research in the field of the theory of
prevention is focussed less on a general discussion of adequate strategies of
prevention, of much greater interest is the evaluation of the consequences of
preventive action in current formations of conflict in different regions.
Closely related to that is the question, which consequences can be deducted from
past situations. Consequently does one key interest of the study besides the
foundation of new developments in the problem-circle of violence lie in the
research of how far security politics (prevention/intervention) is fit to
respond to the demands posed by new wars and regional developments and which
consequences for the international order (implementation and enforcement of
certain codes of behaviour in the case of conflict) result from it.
Methodically the general development of violence in the international system
as well as the question of its change ( according to types and regions) can be
backed up from a macro-analytical perspective. The generation of knowledge on
structure, actors and process-dimensions of new wars, that is lacking so far, as
well as the problem of chances and limitations of preventive politics is thought
to be approached micro-analytically using three regional types of conflict,
respectively five conflict-cases (Bosnia-Hercegovina and Kosovo in South-Eastern
Europe, Sierra Leone and Libeia in Western Africa as well as Afghanistan in
Central Asia). In order to achieve that goal we plan not to adhere to the
classical design of a case study but to put the conflicts themselves, their
basic conditions, as well as the way international influence is exerted in, on
an analytical grid, that amongst others refers to the findings of the research
on certain regions, and thereby systematically analyse them. The development of
this analytical grid is not only of high value for the empirical foundation of
the goals of our project, but could as a systematic research-design also serve
as a basis for future studies with comparable goals. These studies do now exist
parallel with little connection to each other and are seldom guarded by
theoretic preliminaries. That of course is a general structural deficit of the
international relations in general and particularly of peace- and
conflict-studies, that has to be overcome.
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