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Completed research programmsInternationale Politik

Completed research programms

Working Group: Internationale Politik





Research Project: "New Forms of Armed Conflict in the International System: Chances and Limitations of Prevention"
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Starting point for the research project are the changes in the structure of international order and in security politics within the international system that have been observable since the end of the Cold War. These changes include a shift of the ideas of international order (prevention, intervention) as well as a qualitative and quantitative change in the forms of violence. The central elements of this overarching change of violence are its privatisation and denationalisation, their increasingly trans-national and regional character, as well as the reinforcement of internal armed conflicts due to the 'economies of violence' leading to an increasingly globalised war economy. If there are new forms of violence emerging, the question for chances and limitations of any external conflict transformation (prevention and intervention) has to be posed anew.

The goal of the project must consequently be, to clarify which forms of violence shape the current international system as far as security politics and international order are concerned, and what are the chances and limitations of international influence by the means of intervention and prevention in weak or failed states. Theoretically as well as empirically the project adheres to a set of desiderata in current research. Whereas the systematic description of structural and accidental developments of forms of violence in weak and failed states is seen as a contribution to create a conflict-theoretical basis of so called new wars in a globalised era, the connection of forms of conflict with external approaches to influence them should be regarded as contributing to an accentuation of the dimensions of prevention. Although the concept of prevention is widely talked about today, there is a notable lack of theoretical and conceptual linkage with its actual frame of reference - violent conflicts; especially with their change and the problem of differing regional risks for international politics. In the ongoing discussion the fact that prevention depends on the willingness and ability to intervene (intervention being the correlate of prevention) is not sufficiently considered. Secondly it is often negated that, if the concept of prevention and intervention is consequently thought, it implies the use of force as ultima ratio. Thirdly the necessity of prevention being actor-centred is not given sufficient space in the ongoing discussion, as well as the insight that success or failure of certain preventive measures directly depend on the particular kind of the respective violent conflict. Fourthly from a security-political view, the regional context in which violent conflicts occur is to be taken into consideration. Finally the problem is of interest, in how far prevention and intervention contribute to a change in the structure of international order, that is in how far do they lead to a standardisation and limitation of violence on the one hand and to intervention on the other. The key interest of any research in the field of the theory of prevention is focussed less on a general discussion of adequate strategies of prevention, of much greater interest is the evaluation of the consequences of preventive action in current formations of conflict in different regions. Closely related to that is the question, which consequences can be deducted from past situations. Consequently does one key interest of the study besides the foundation of new developments in the problem-circle of violence lie in the research of how far security politics (prevention/intervention) is fit to respond to the demands posed by new wars and regional developments and which consequences for the international order (implementation and enforcement of certain codes of behaviour in the case of conflict) result from it.

Methodically the general development of violence in the international system as well as the question of its change ( according to types and regions) can be backed up from a macro-analytical perspective. The generation of knowledge on structure, actors and process-dimensions of new wars, that is lacking so far, as well as the problem of chances and limitations of preventive politics is thought to be approached micro-analytically using three regional types of conflict, respectively five conflict-cases (Bosnia-Hercegovina and Kosovo in South-Eastern Europe, Sierra Leone and Libeia in Western Africa as well as Afghanistan in Central Asia). In order to achieve that goal we plan not to adhere to the classical design of a case study but to put the conflicts themselves, their basic conditions, as well as the way international influence is exerted in, on an analytical grid, that amongst others refers to the findings of the research on certain regions, and thereby systematically analyse them. The development of this analytical grid is not only of high value for the empirical foundation of the goals of our project, but could as a systematic research-design also serve as a basis for future studies with comparable goals. These studies do now exist parallel with little connection to each other and are seldom guarded by theoretic preliminaries. That of course is a general structural deficit of the international relations in general and particularly of peace- and conflict-studies, that has to be overcome.
 




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